Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Contrary to reports, the sky is not falling...


Look: we are a number one seed.  We are the second overall seed.  We are coming off of a Big 12 Tournament in which Tyler Self got on the floor in all three games played.  In the last 30 days we have seen a 39 point masterpiece by Elijah, followed up by a 37 point masterpiece by Ben.  We witnessed the emergence of Perry Ellis as an offensive contributor.  So, the expectations are high.  However, all of those things:  A.) Followed a much-publicized 3-game losing streak, and B.) Occurred on the national scene.  All of these things, in conjuction with a season-ending dismantling at Baylor, and 2011’s South Regional final loss to VCU, 2010’s loss to UNI, 2006’s loss to Bradley, and 2005’s loss to Bucknell have ESPN's College Hoops bloggers ready to discount the Jayhawks.  But the truth is this:  KU won both games this weekend, and they won both of them very much the way that they have won games all year long.  And, if The Hawks are going to win at Jerryworld, I’m afraid to inform you, that the games at The Sprint Center are very reflective of what lies ahead.  Furthermore, you shouldn’t be afraid of that.  So, the sooner that you disregard the “experts” and get your asshole unpuckered, the more fun that this thing is going to be.

                Every single college basketball analyst at ESPN, other than Jason King, has not typed the word Kansas this week, without following that with “TCU”.  These guys (and gal), who have seen little of KU during the regular season; continue to harken back to that fateful night in early February in Fort Worth.  For them, the season begins and ends with that awful loss.  You cannot possibly take KU serious, because when is that team that lost to TCU going to reemerge?  But the simple answer to that is: Likely never.  The truth is, on February 6th, Kansas shot 30% from the field.  It has only shot below 40% since then once, the loss at Baylor.  But, in that loss at Baylor, the 38% FG% from KU was not the reason for their loss.  They allowed The Bears to shoot 58% from the field, which is 13% higher than they let anyone else shoot in conference play, and 17% higher than anyone since then.  It is 26% higher than they let anyone shoot in the opening weekend of March Madness.  But, to my original point, the comparisons to our TCU loss have no bearing on where the team is now.  They shot 44% from the field against UNC, and 48% against WKU.  Removing the TCU loss, where we shot 30%, the team shot between 38% and 57% throughout conference play.  The 48% that the team shot against WKU, where the ESPN crew began their TCU tirade, was merely 1% lower than we shot in the Big 12 Championship game.  A Tyler Self game.  Thus, the cries of “the sky is falling” in regards to our offense are both unfounded, and not supported by the data.

                Here is where our efforts must be focused in Arlington:  Opponents’ FG%.  It has been our bread and butter all season, and must continue to be.  Over the course of the entire season, only 5 opponents have shot 42% from the field or greater: Michigan State (52%), at Texas (45%), Okie State in The Phog (43%), at OU (45%), and at Baylor (58%).  All of those are losses except for at Texas, which would have/should have been a loss, had The Horns not shot 25% from the charity stripe.  So, that is your marker for Friday night.  The Hawks must limit Michigan to 42% from the field or lower.  If we do that, we should win.

                Keep in mind, we’re likely to shoot somewhere between 38% and 57% from the field ourselves, so, if it happens to be on the low end of that, we’ll be biting our nails.  If it’s closer to 57%, we’ll be drinking Ad Astras and screaming “We want Tyler”.  Either way, if we limit The Wolverines to 42% FG%, we’ll be playing on Sunday for the South Region title.

                The sweet justice in that is that we’ll be doing it mere miles from Fort Worth.  Perhaps one of those “experts” could actually make a trip to TCU for the first time.

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